I have been thinking and writing a good deal regarding the smart money recently. Basically, smart money is the funds bet by the most prepared and effective of bettors – the genuine professionals. Among the more interesting – and often profitable – activities is to attempt to figure out where the smart money is being bet on a game, and what it means.
You can’t just ask the sports books in which the smart money is, and the smartest bettors typically don’t broadcast their bets to the general public. This means that you must use careful observation and some ideas to deduce where smart money is headed within a particular game. We won’t talk about how to see the smart money here because we have done it in other articles, though with practice it gets easy to do. The Things I do want to think about, though, is three situations when the smart finances are interesting, and where it might potentially point anyone to a profitable bet of your very own:
If the odds move rapidly – Sometimes you will notice a line that may be released then gets violently attacked – like, for instance, a football game in which the line opens at 10 and drops to 6 in just hours. Lines can move that far on account of heavy public action in one side, but when they change very quickly and soon following the lines are posted then it is more often a warning sign how the smart money has pounced on the line. The key reason why they have got jumped onto it so aggressively is generally since there is an error in the line. Spotting these big moves can let you know where that mistake is. There is sometimes a problem here, though – if you spot the line after every one of the movement has happened then this sbo through the smart money has probably corrected the error. That means that when they have gotten the value of the line error it might be there for yourself – although you may bet on the same side as them. It’s often not profitable, then, to bet on the same side because the smart money well as soon as they are making their bet. That doesn’t imply that it isn’t worth checking out these line changes, though. By far the most value in spotting these moves inside my eyes is you can look closely at the overall game and try to discover why it is that the original line was seen as a mistake by the sports bettors. The more you look at these games the greater you receive at spotting the errors, and the better the chances that you can spot them before they have been corrected. In a nutshell, searching for these moves and learning from their website is a terrific way to cause you to a much better bettor.
Each time a game moves within the opposite direction to what you will expect – You can’t easily discover how much cash is bet on each team inside a particular game. What you can find out, though, is just how many bets are already positioned on each team. Whenever we notice a game in which a huge majority of the bets – 70 % or maybe more – are saved to one team we would typically expect the percentages for this team to get less attractive. That’s for the reason that books generally like to have action which is closed to balanced so that they can make profits with little risk, so that they changes the lines to bring in action to a single team to achieve that balance. Sometimes, though, we will see games in which the large largest part of bets are stored on one team, however the line moves to help make that team much more attractive. What that tells us is that the small number of bettors about the less popular team have bet more cash in comparison to the large number of bettors about the dexmpky80 team. In case the team moves significantly we realize that the smart money has bet the overall game aggressively. It can be profitable by betting up against the public in these situations. This is a terrific way to spot teams that will be ready to accomplish a large upset – something which can result in very profitable moneyline bets.
When nothing of note happens in a very high profile game – Each time a game is high profile – a nationally televised game between big name teams – then your betting action will often be significantly higher than for most games in the sport. If the line hasn’t moved significantly within a high profile game, and the amount of bets is reasonably balanced between the sides, then it is safe to imagine that the smart money hasn’t weighed in heavily using one side or even the other. That doesn’t signify you shouldn’t bet on these games simply because the smart money might not have. Certainly not. What it means, though, is that the line that may be posted may well be pretty accurate – when it wasn’t then the smart money would have moved it until it was – which means you should only bet in the game if you see a significant edge for among the teams according to your handicapping.