The NFL bye week can be a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough awareness of. In the event you consider a novice sports bettor, and you also spot the kind of betting line which includes you quickly heading to Google News and your favorite sports stat site to find out if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice if it team’s opponent is on its way off a bye. For people advanced sports bettors battling with the bye week, I’ll cover some higher-level research and insights in regards to the bye in this post. Just before getting to this, I’ll address some general points for any individual unclear just what a bye week is, or on which weeks teams have byes.
As you may probably know, sbobet online contains each team playing 16 games. In 1990, the league changed into a 17 week season to be able to profit more from television advertising. This left each team by using a single week off in the course of the season called a bye week. The bye week was previously random spanning over the entire season, nevertheless in 2004 to create a more uniform agenda for the playoff race, the format was changed. How it works now is bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As being a sports bettor, you’ll have to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, because they have the benefit of extra time to rest, improve your health, practice and prepare.
Basically we won’t include this in our analysis, one other area recreational bettors need to pay attention to is Thursday games. Starting week 10 of the NFL season there is a single Thursday night game, and also on Thanksgiving the two main additional Thursday day games. This means that on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is often the case both for teams; so it is not something to concern yourself with. Where it gets a problem may be the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and can gain a similar advantage to usually the one they already have coming from a bye week. Make certain when you make bets on the NFL to pay attention both to teams coming away from the bye, and also to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Given that this isn’t a write-up about statistical handicapping models, a topic which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t go deep into it in a lot more detail than to create a single statement after which support it. That statement: the more effective a team is, the more they benefit from the bye week. This may not be a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis that this best odds makers are familiar with. To give you a little clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye can be a multiplier based on power rankings. All teams benefit from the bye week, but exactly how much they benefit is proportional to how good of the team they may be.
In case the above statement is at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some basic stats regarding how well teams coming from the bye week have fared that will help you know the lines a bit better.
On the four latest seasons (2007-2010), in games where only one team is originating away from the bye, the group coming away from the bye features a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 versus the spread.
Now, if you’re thinking of betting teams coming from the bye for the reason that past 4 years they’ve covered 58.1% of the time, read my article about the current betting market. A process like which may been employed in 2006; but, much more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. Simply because today NFL betting lines are significantly more efficient, and also the market will probably correct itself.
The regular ATS information is nice, however it doesn’t tell us much unless we break it down further. After doing this, a more interesting trend appears. Using the same 110 game sample, teams coming from the bye week that are favored have got a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off of the bye have a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is reasonably small, but 15-1-2 versus the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To share with you a remote stat from a post I wrote several dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (over a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of the time.
To return to and have better four year numbers for those favorites coming off of the bye, there are 9 games missing in the 110 sample size I used. It is because 9 times since 2007 there are games where both teams were coming off the bye. (32×4=128), I got the 110 sample size because 18 of the byes were not connected to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams take advantage of the bye more than the industry is giving them credit for. I believe that that because only good teams are favored on your way inside the NFL. Using just road favorites is a little quirky, however, and a few might contemplate it “data mining”, even though this trend is well founded when dating back much beyond 2007. If we’re going to really look at this in depth, though, we must have a look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s built in the spread.